NASA's Urgent Action as ‘City-Killer’ Asteroid's Risk of Earth Impact in 2032 Increases

NASA and global space agencies are taking immediate action after the risk of asteroid 2024 YRF colliding with Earth has escalated. The asteroid, which is about the size of New York’s Statue of Liberty or London’s Big Ben, now has a significantly higher chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032. Originally estimated to have only a 1.2% probability of collision, that likelihood has now surged to 2.3%, or roughly one-in-43. This increase has prompted immediate planetary defense measures.

The change in probability, surpassing the 1% threshold, requires formal notifications to U.S. government agencies responsible for planetary defense, as well as the United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs, in accordance with international protocols under the International Asteroid Warning Network. As a result, NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies has initiated further observations using the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) to assess the asteroid's size and potential impact damage.

Size and Potential Impact of Asteroid 2024 YRF

Asteroid 2024 YRF, measuring between 40 and 90 meters in diameter (130 to 295 feet), could unleash catastrophic consequences if it strikes Earth. The asteroid's exact size is still uncertain, as it could be highly reflective or more absorbing of light. According to the European Space Agency (ESA), astronomers are currently using a range of powerful telescopes, including JWST, to gather precise data on the asteroid's size and orbit.

The JWST's upcoming observations in March and May are crucial. The first will occur when the asteroid reaches peak brightness, with subsequent observations made as the asteroid swings back around in 2028.

ESA scientists have emphasized that knowing the asteroid's orbit alone is not enough. The hazard posed by a 40-meter asteroid is significantly different from that of a 90-meter asteroid. The impact of such an object would have global repercussions, with severe blast damage extending up to 50 kilometers (31 miles) from the impact site.

A Threat to Earth’s Future

While 2024 YRF is not expected to trigger an extinction-level event, its potential impact would be devastating. If the asteroid collides with Earth, it could release an energy equivalent to 15 megatons of TNT, making it 100 times more powerful than the atomic bomb that destroyed Hiroshima. The energy released would cause widespread destruction, with fatalities potentially reaching hundreds of thousands.

This threat was first detected by the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile in December 2024. Since then, the asteroid’s trajectory has been closely monitored by international space agencies to assess the need for potential deflection strategies.

As the situation develops, the global community continues to prepare for the worst-case scenario while hoping that these early warnings and ongoing research will help mitigate any potential disaster.